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The most revealing player of the 2019 ALDS had quite a season.
Sure, he only had 111 hits, but he stroked 32 doubles and had 354 total bases. He scored 151 runs, drove in 161, and smashed a near-record 71 home runs. Obviously, his batting average, slugging percentage, OBP and OPS were off the charts.
Here, and ready to work. #StayHungry pic.twitter.com/w9EzIACQjh
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) October 4, 2019
He’s the player the Tampa Bay Rays would have needed to match the Astros in any category I just mentioned.
There is, to put it simply, no reason to think the Rays have any chance in this series. Houston is in the peak of an unprecedented run, one likely to land them on future “Greatest Team Of All Time” lists. They had the highest slugging percentage in baseball history. Their pitchers struck out the most batters this season, and their hitters struck out the least. They have two pitchers who would be the ace of any other team, and a third who’d have qualified for that list within recent memory. Their closer had the 2nd-most saves in MLB, despite the offense providing him only a middling number of save opportunities.
The @astros are the 1st team to 100 wins this season. It is their 3rd straight 100-win season.
This is the fastest they’ve reached 100 wins in franchise history (153 games).
Houston is now just the 6th team in MLB history to record 3 straight 100-win seasons. pic.twitter.com/WiyOlfwsk5
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 19, 2019
Houston’s won 100 games three times in a row, something only five other teams have ever accomplished, and set the franchise record for wins this season. They’ll play three of five at Minute Maid Field, where they won an absurd 75% of their games this season. Their road record was only one game worse than the Rays’ home record.
They are a juggernaut on all sides of the ball. They do not have a discernible weakness. They lost four out of seven to Tampa Bay this year. They…
Wait, WHAT?
Yes, you read that correctly, and it’s the only conceivable reason that Tampa Bay fans, or desperately in-debt bettors, should feel any optimism about backing the Rays. Tampa joins Minnesota, the White Sox, and Cincinnati as the only teams to have a winning record against Houston this season. On the surface, that would seem to level the playing field a bit.
Rays were 4-3 vs Astros this season, but were outscored 40-27 in those 7 games. All 4 wins were by 2 runs or fewer. https://t.co/LPFTpjOieP
— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) October 3, 2019
Well….surface, shmurface. Four of those games led off the season, when Houston was without Carlos Correa (except for a hitless game four), had not added Zack Grienke (who’s held the current Rays roster to a .207 BA in his career), and Yordan Alvarez, who is as high-impact of a true rookie (i.e., not an Aaron Judge, who had a cup of coffee the year prior) as baseball has produced. A month ago, with Alvarez and Greinke, Houston dumped 31 runs on the Rays in three games, losing just once thanks to blown saves from both Joe Smith and Chris Devenski.
Astros average/OBP/slugging vs. Rays this year
Reddick .389/.421/.556
Marisnick .385/.429/.615
Alvarez .364/.500/1.000
Springer .296/.441/.519
Bregman .276/.276/.448
Gurriel .261/.370/.478
Brantley .250/.280/.417
Altuve .241/.281/.552
Correa was 0-for-3— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) October 3, 2019
In September, the Rays had just 11 games in which their starting pitcher lasted five innings, despite 20 of their 25 games coming against teams that missed the playoffs (and who, apart from Boston, had nothing to play for). While the Rays are known for implementing the opener strategy, fatigue is fatigue. As any blackjack player can tell you, the more cards you play, the more likely you are to pick a bad one (which can lead to the kind of horrific debts that might lead a man to bet on Tampa this week).
Look, don’t get me wrong, here – the Rays clearly maximize what they have. They may be the truest sons of the Moneyball generation, and a model for small-market baseball franchises. But the Astros are Murderer’s Row with a scoop of the Big Red Machine on top. They are as flawless of a baseball team as can we reasonably expect to ever see constructed. They’re healthy. They’re rested. If this series somehow goes five games, the Rays will face the 2019 AL Cy Young Award winner and runner-up in four of them, and the most powerful offense in MLB history in all of them. Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.
Our Reign 🏆#TakeItBack pic.twitter.com/RITlorZqhD
— Houston Astros (@astros) September 22, 2019
Houston in three.
